Team B85809
Team Number 85809
Problem Chosen B
2018 APMCM summary sheet
Talent and urban development
Abstract
Talents are the motive force of urban innovation and development This article disposes and analyzes the data of job demand in A city employment market developing mathematical model through the analysis of known data to solve practical problems
The prominent feature of this paper is to establish the Grey Model to modeling analyze the known data according to the randomness of the dynamic change of the job demand data of A city＇s employment market the incompleteness and uncertainty of the index data and relying on the Grey Model to realize the prediction of the variation trend of future development so as to achieve the aim which expect to solve the practical premedication problem simulate and analyze the actual situation of A city then put forward feasible suggestions for urban development and talent strategy
Another outstanding feature is that to make a deep analysis of the talent demand and talent flow in A city then provide the improvement the urban development strategy by expanding and applying the Grey Model combining the influence of the actual economic development the demand for science and technology development the national employment policy and the like on the demand for talents in the A city employment market
According to the data given by Question 1 we classify and analyze the data from three aspects work demand job expectancy and educational background requirement We build a Grey Model by MATLAB by using the Grey Model we analyze the data of fouryear talent demand of A city so as to get the forecasting model of talent demand of A city which can help to grasp the law of talent demand in A City Employment Market
In order to meet the needs of Question 2 we forecast and analyze the potential talent demand in A city in the next three years by using the Grey Model which built in Question 1 This paper combining the prediction model with the influence of the economic development situation the demand for science and technology development the national employment policy and other factors on the talent demand of A City Employment Market and then makes a deep analysis brings it into the model and analyzes the changing trend of the talent demand data that affected by various social levels as well
Focusing on the problem in question 3 we infer the urban characteristics of A city by predicting the trend of talent demand in A city based on Grey Model according to the conclusion of question two to make a comparative analysis with the actual data of some cities in China then infer the administrative categories possible geographical region economic status and hightech
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industry development finally analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the development structure of A city as a whole
In response to the new career preferences of college students that mentioned in question 4 such as taking civil service examinations starting their own enterprises working in different places studying abroad and the like we assume the trend and number of this type of college students in city A according to the city model from question 3 after putting the data trends into the Grey Model which mentioned in question 1 we can get the prediction model of college students on these items based on these above we can get the the quantitative prediction data by analyzing this phenomenon After that we can find the trend of College Students＇ new career preferences and the types and quantities for talent demand in the city＇s development planning Focus on the structure of development of this city as well as implementing the new development concept of the city in the era of informationize and intelligentialize putting forward the corresponding strategies of retaining and introducing talents in order to further plan the development economic construction scientific and technological innovation of A city
According to the following question 5 and relevant conclusions drawn from the above four questions we can get a specific talent demand prediction model of A city According to the theoretical data which derived from the prediction model we adjust the training plan of computer software professionals and accordingly the corresponding adjustment measures will be put forward in the aspects of cultivation and personalization of College students in the course construction applyoriented talents as well On the premise of guaranteeing the stability of universities and majors’ framework the training of school talents is more in line with the talents demand in A city and the needs of urban development planning
Key words Grey Model talent demand tendency urban development planning applicationoriented talent training
Team B85809
Contents
Talent and urban development 1
§1 Restatement of the question 1
ⅠIntroduction 1
ⅡRelevant data 1
ⅢSpecific questions 1
§2 question analysis 2
ⅠAnalysis of specific questions and countermeasures 2
ⅡGeneral analysis of the question and the way to solve it 3
§3 Assumptions of the model 3
§4 Explanation of nouns and symbols 4
ⅠNoun explanation 4
ⅡSymbols 4
§5 Establishment and solution of the model 5
ⅠAnalysis and solution of question one 5
ⅡAnalysis and solution of question 2 13
ⅢAnalysis and solution of question 3 18
ⅣAnalysis and solution of question 418
ⅤAnalysis and solution of question 5 20
§6 Error analysis and sensitivity analysis 22
ⅠThe error analysis 22
ⅡModel rationality test and analysis 22
§7 Evaluation and generalization of the model 23
ⅠEvaluation of model 23
Reference 24
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§1 Restatement of the question
ⅠIntroduction
1Background
In the past few years inviting wisdom and attracting talents has been one of the highlights of many cities Beijing Shanghai wuhan chengdu xi ＇an and shenzhen are actually competing for talent with attractive policies Talent is the driving force for urban innovation and development because they have the ability to learn better skills make better products and master better management methods in a shorter time Talents are the main driving force of urban innovation communication because innovation communication is realized through the promotion of new technologies and technologies by highquality talents In today＇s cities in addition to the local talent market talent is also recruited through the Internet campus job fairs and open recruitment activities
2Significance of research
Talents are the core elements of regional development and outstanding talents are the basis for realizing regional development goals and the driving force for regional development In order to develop and grow a region should first attach importance to gathering innovative talents actively explore new measures paths and methods of talent construction constantly strengthen talent construction and provide strong human resources guarantee for regional development
ⅡRelevant data
Attached is the job demand data of one of the largest municipal job markets in A city (named A city＇s job market)
ⅢSpecific questions
Question 1 according to the attached data according to the job demand desired occupation and required education background the talent demand of A city＇s employment market is modeled and analyzed
Question 2 according to the talent demand of A City＇s employment market and the employment status of Chinese students the actual talent demand model data of A City can be established according to the additional data and other necessary methods and the potential talent demand of acity in the next three years can be predicted and analyzed
Question 3 try to use the data and conclusions in question 2 to infer the administrative category possible geographical region economic status and hightech industry development of acity
Question4 in recent years college students have some new career preferences such as taking the exam for village officials taking the exam for civil servants starting their own businesses working in other places and studying abroad These preferences help diversify job opportunities for college graduates This paper attempts to model and quantify this phenomenon
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to provide strategies for acity＇s urban development and talent introduction
Question 5 please write to the school authorities to find out your Suggestions and opinions on the professional talent training plan you are familiar with including curriculum construction applicationoriented talent training individualization of college students and corresponding quality measures to ensure the university and professional framework according to the current market demand for talents
§2 question analysis
ⅠAnalysis of specific questions and countermeasures
1Analysis and countermeasures of question 1
In view of the question of A given data we work in accordance with the requirements expectations of the occupation and education background of the three aspects of required for data classification and analysis of corresponding data model is established by MATLAB according to the dynamic change of randomness index data of incomplete uncertainty so the use of gray theory model to analyze it hope through the grey system analysis of A city four years of talent demand data analysis get the city talent demand forecasting model through the prediction model master A city the job market demand
2Analysis and countermeasures of question 2
In order to solve the question of question 2 we apply the data model of question 1 In question one we have set up A City the job market demand forecasting model of grey system by the prediction model as well as our country economy development situation in recent years the development of science and technology national employment policy factors such as the talent demand for A City the job market the influence of the comprehensive analysis to the model and analyzes the influence of various social levels change to demand data analysis to predict the future three years A potential demand of the City
3Analysis and countermeasures of question 3
For three of the proposed questions can according to the data in question 2 and conclusion is obtained by the model to predict the possible existence of urban characteristics of A city and some cities in our country＇s actual data this paper compares and analyzes the categories on the part of A city and possible geographical area economic status and hightech industry development to make inferences
4Analysis and countermeasures of question 4
The following are proposed in question 4 College students A new career preferences such as taking the village official test take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to study these students after graduation to is not in the scope of urban demand we will get the city according to the question of three models assume that such A city college students towards and quantity and will move towards its data and trend into A gray theory model are college students on these items to forecast model on the basis of A quantitative prediction of this phenomenon after get the data according to the data of college students＇ preference towards A new career trends As well as the
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type and quantity of talent demand needed by the city in the development planning the corresponding talent introduction strategy is put forward
5Analysis and countermeasures of question 5
By five proposed questions according to the related conclusion from the above four issues we can get A more specific city A talented person and the prediction model of the college students A new career preferences according to the theoretical data obtained from the model and the actual social situation that economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the effects on the actual data we can be targeted for the school＇s professional talent training plan in adjustment in the course construction applied talents training college students＇ individualized aspects put forward the corresponding adjustment measures On the premise of ensuring that the university and professional framework do not change the talent training of the university is more in line with the talent demand and urban development planning needs of city A
ⅡGeneral analysis of the question and the way to solve it
According to the question setting of this topic and the relevant data provided by it the group mainly applies the gray theory model to analyze it In terms of the processing of this topic it is mainly divided into the following steps first relevant material data is sorted out and analyzed and the gray theory model is substituted for the analysis to establish the basic model Secondly by extending the application of the model and analyzing the real social factors the prediction value based on the grey theory model is obtained Thirdly through the analysis and arrangement of the relevant data of the last four years and the prediction of the data of the next three years the real city model is compared to infer the relevant attributes of A city Fourth by the new vocational college students prefer this new variable substitution and sorting existing gray theory model and add new variables and parameters the new professional preferences to improve the original model the influence of improving the gray theory model and on the basis of the demand for talents and the introduction of strategy to get the corresponding solution Fifth from the perspective of university how to utilize the existing relevant prediction models talent demand is A quantitative estimation of A city and targeted to the school personnel training strategy to implement the corresponding improvement to adapt to the urban demand and accordingly to meet the needs of the employment of college students in order to improve the school personnel training strategy feasibility
§3 Assumptions of the model
1 Suppose the background of the topic in question 2 is set as the economic development situation the demand for scientific and technological development and the national employment policy of China
2 In this paper the vertical axis of all charts represents the number of people and the horizontal axis represents the year and month from 1 to 36 respectively from September 2015 to August 2012
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§4 Explanation of nouns and symbols
ⅠNoun explanation
1Grey model
If a system has the fuzziness of hierarchical and structural relations the randomness of dynamic changes the incompleteness or uncertainty of index data then these characteristics are called gray A system with a gray character is called a gray system The prediction model established for the grey system is called the grey model or GM model for short which reveals the process of continuous development and change of things inside the system That is through a small amount of incomplete information the grey differential prediction model is established to describe the development law of things in a fuzzy way for a long time (a branch of forecasting science with relatively perfect theories and methods in the field of fuzzy prediction)
2Mean variance ratio test
Let＇s say the ratio of mean to variance is Among them is the mean variance of the sequence residualsIs the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the size of mean variance ratio the better the accuracy of the prediction model
3Smoothness test
Through the formula of （n123m1）conduct smoothness testwhile n>3p<05 satisfies the smoothness condition
4Exponential law test
Through the formula of （n23m）Perform exponential rule testswhile n>3is exponential
ⅡSymbols
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serial number
symbol
Symbols
1
β
Mean variance ratio
2
S1
Mean variance of the original sequence
3
S2
Mean variance of sequence residuals
4
p（n）
Smoothness test parameters
5
q（n）
Exponential law tests parameters
6
X
A sequence of known data
§5 Establishment and solution of the model
ⅠAnalysis and solution of question one
1Analysis of the question
For A given data the analysis judgment concluded that we need to use statistics to complete A known about the job requirements and expectations of the occupation and education background required for these three aspects of data model enables it to achieve realistic data so we build corresponding data model by MATLAB the dynamic changes of randomness according to the data of incomplete uncertainty index data so the use of gray theory model to analyze it expect the city talent demand forecasting is obtained by grey system analysis model master A city the job market demand
2 The solution of the problem
21 Model preparation
（1）Data preprocessing：
First numerical pretreatment due to the materials given in the data for each position according to the statistics in the talent supply and demand according to the classification of degree required talents therefore for the convenience of longitudinal data analysis based on time axis the original data to carry on the corresponding processing for each post from 20159 20188 to the timeline for the benchmark data table statistics data statistics there are the actual supply according to the classification of degree required talents demand the total demand three aspects of data respectively corresponding to the topic of work requirements the required education background job expectations After preprocessing the data the grey theoretical model was selected for analysis based on the data characteristics and our questionsolving ideas and the grey theoretical model was established by MATLAB according to the position
（2）Data analysis：
According to the data subject material and the data using MATLAB to the grey theory model according to the job requirements the required education background job expectations three aspects to analyze the data and will be subject to jobs according to each position in the timeline of the order of the overall data analysis nested gray theory model the theory of grey mathematical model is set
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up for each position according to the variance ratio test the smoothness inspection exponential rule the rationality of the data from model test
22 Modeling
（1） According to the material data the grey theory model is established
（2）According to variance ratio test smoothness test and exponential law test the rationality of the obtained data model was tested
Among them：
Let＇s say the mean variance ratio is Among themis the mean variance of the sequence residualsis the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the mean variance ratioisthe better the accuracy of the prediction model
Through the formula（n123m1）to test the smoothnesswhile n>3p<05 satisfies the smoothness condition
Through the formula（n23m）perform exponential rule testwhile n>3Exponential law
Finally we have a grey theoretical model with good fit is obtained
For reasons of length the visual processing of the model established by arbitrarily selecting several occupations is as follows：
mark
（The red line——The actual value）
（The blue line——The predictive value）
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According to the variance ratio test smoothness test and exponential rule test mentioned above the model data reflected in the above chart can be sorted out to obtain
（For reasons of length only examples are given Other posts and positions are handled in the same way）
Eg Technical work
①P（n）as the following table
09792
03737
02375
01703
11746
04501
01233
01307
00753
00700
00792
00713
00785
00543
00437
00063
02112
00790
00261
00406
00280
00119
00725
00403
00257
00238
00169
00132
00551
01395
00278
00447
00410
00293
00326
0
According to the smoothness rulewhile n>3P（n） data in the table are basically less than 05（exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
②q（n）as the following table
14938
19988
23134
26356
16700
15998
10180
11358
13408
13551
11313
11775
10093
13658
16289
109749
16725
12689
20725
13111
18466
42789
12992
11867
18110
19267
26809
33992
11856
16920
13688
11629
11160
12002
10598
1
Rule by exponential rulewhiel n>3q（n） data in the table are basically within the interval [115]（exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
③By A inv (b ＇* B) * B * YN＇ can get A 00106 so the model can be used for speculation or for the medium and long term forecast
In other words the obtained model is X(k+1)131759674exp(0010601k)130799674
That is the Technical work grey theoretical model
According to the solution results of this post grey theory model the general solution of the model can be obtained as
close allclear allclc
yxlsread(＇D＼1＼zhiye＼Technical workxlsx＇)
wGM1_1(y(13)＇)
i1
j1
k38
aw(1)
bw(2)
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cw(3)
y2[]
Y3[]
XY[]
while(i y2(i)[b*exp(a*i)+c]
ii+1
end
while(j Y3(j)y2(j+1)y2(j)
jj+1
end
x1136
dY3
ey(13)
plot(xd＇＇xe＇*＇)
axis([1360700])
xlabel(＇Month＇)
ylabel(＇Number＇)
title(＇Technical work＇)
function wGM1_1(X0)
[mn]size(X0)
X1cumsum(X0)
X2[]
for i1n1
X2(i)X1(i)+X1(i+1)
end
B05*X2
tones(n11)
B[Bt]
YNX0(2end)
P_tYNX1(1(length(X0)1))
Ainv(B＇*B)*B＇*YN＇
aA(1)
uA(2)
cua
bX0(1)c
X[num2str(b)＇exp＇＇(＇num2str(a)＇k＇＇)＇num2str(c)]
strcat(＇X(k+1)＇X)
for t1length(X0)
k(1t)t1
end
k
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Y_k_1b*exp(a*k)+c
for j1length(k)1
Y(1j)Y_k_1(j+1)Y_k_1(j)
end
XY[Y_k_1(1)Y]
w[abc]
CAabs(XYX0)
ThetaCA
XD_Theta CA X0
AVmean(CA)
R_k(min(Theta)+05*max(Theta))(Theta+05*max(Theta))
Rsum(R_k)length(R_k)
Temp0(CAAV)^2
Temp1sum(Temp0)length(CA)
S2sqrt(Temp1)
AV_0mean(X0)
Temp_0(X0AV_0)^2
Temp_1sum(Temp_0)length(CA)
S1sqrt(Temp_1)
TempCS2S1*100
Cstrcat(num2str(TempC)＇＇)
SS0675*S1
Deltaabs(CAAV)
TempNfind(DeltaN1length(TempN)
N2length(CA)
TempPN1N2*100
Pstrcat(num2str(TempP)＇＇)
ⅡAnalysis and solution of question 2
1Analysis of the question
With two proposed questions this question needs to be considered in the question solving our country economy development situation in recent years the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the talent demand for A City the job market then these factors into the question of A comprehensive analysis of grey theory model analysis the influence of various social levels data changes to the talent demand forecast analysis to three years A potential demand of the City
2The solution of the question
Check according to the data and then analyzed data processing we can get there may be in the next three years our country＇s economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the influence of the demand for talent the question A of the proceeds of the gray theory model we can in three A City of potential demand for roughly predict visualization processing by MATLAB to predict the
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results are as follows (due to space only for A few more representative to predict the position and through correlation analysis of potential demand for all kinds of jobs)
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（Due to space constraints some career charts are omitted）
According to A city have professional type can be roughly classified as information services finance health market law media types such as the project by the above analysis of the grey theory model city A talent demand trends in the next three years and reference for our country＇s economic development situation the development of science and technology demand employment policies of the state and so on comprehensive impact analysis is A city in the next three years city talent demand in the field of engineering technology etc on the basis of the model prediction is on the rise and flatten out the cultural production The information field shows a downward trend In the case of rapid growth the number of employees in the service industry may tend to be saturated and the number of talents in demand may tend to be stable or the growth rate may decrease On the basis of the rapid decline in the overall forecast of health care the decrease in the demand rate may be slowed down in the next three years According to China＇s existing employment policies there may be a certain degree of rebound In terms of law it is less affected by other factors Therefore according to the prediction model it
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can be judged that its rise or fall is very small and basically in a relatively stable state
ⅢAnalysis and solution of question 3
1Analysis of the question
Question 3 is in view of the city administrative categories possible geographic areas economic development of hightech industry status and related theories we can according to the question of grey theory model the demand for the employment of the city divided into types of general trends and the percentage of model prediction through professional requirement type percentage and its change trend can be broadly possible geographical area of A city economic status and development of hightech industries in speculation
2The solution of the question
Data obtained by two gray theory model we professional requirement type percentage of A city and its change trend based on the gray theory model and forecasting got the city vocational percentage requirement types and the change tendency from these data and other cities in our country related data (online access to draw) analogy after finishing can be concluded that A city can be A tertiary industry such as tourism services for the urban development cities with preference for domestic tourists tourist attractions the urban population is relatively small the information industry development is slow in the field of secondtier cities
ⅣAnalysis and solution of question 4
1Analysis of the question
New college students＇ career preferences such as taking the village official test take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to study solve the question should be based on data reflects the trend of college students＇ preference towards a new career as well as the city in development planning need the type and amount of talent demand targeted put forward the corresponding strategy of talent introduction
2The solution of the question
Based on the search for the related information to take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to learn the three direction of college students to the establishment of the grey theory model using similar methods to question 1 modeling and quantization it is concluded that the predictive results of the three directions for the future development trend (see chart)
Civil service examination：
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Work in a different place：
Overseas：
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The prediction data obtained by the grey theory model and the graphs obtained by visual processing combined with the conclusions obtained by the second and third questions can provide strategies for the development and talent introduction of city A as follows：
（1） According to the city tourism service industry as A pillar industry Suggestions on this basis the accumulation of the economy the development of hightech accelerate the construction of information the intelligence information industries as well as the field of Internet of things combined with the urban development of pillar industries supplement each other for better and faster to make urban areas such as economy science and technology get allround development
（2） Brain drain present situation for A city should be in employment policy welfare and other related social conditions on the measures to attract college students after graduation stay in the development of the local employment policy regulations relevant enterprises shall in the post and position on A certain degree of innovation the college students＇ practical skills and the way of the development of the enterprise create more jobs higher level of industry development planning
ⅤAnalysis and solution of question 5
1Analysis of the question
By five proposed questions according to the related conclusion from the above four issues we have to get A more specific city A talented person and the prediction model of the college students A new career preferences according to the theoretical data obtained from the model and the actual social situation that economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the effects on the actual data we can be targeted for the school＇s professional talent training plan in adjustment in the course construction applied talents training college students＇ individualized aspects put forward the corresponding adjustment measures On the premise of ensuring that the framework of university and major does not change
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the talent cultivation of university is more in line with the talent demand and urban development planning needs of city a in the process of solving the question we will take computer software major as an example to solve question 5
2The solution of the question
Dear President
I learned that computer software professional is one of the key construction of undergraduate programs in our school the professional including professional quality professional knowledge and skills of study and is equipped with computer application specialty the plane design professional netease web design program design such as major in professional place its courses including mathematics foreign language such as basic computer basic course and Office program design computer networks and other professional course enable students to understand and grasp the basic theory basic knowledge and basic professional operation ability can the integrated use of curriculum theory and knowledge to solve practical questions
Our school has done a good job in setting up continuation majors Diversified continuation majors can fully stimulate students＇ interest and ability help our school to cultivate diversified talents and greatly improve the employment rate of undergraduate students
According to the statistics of the demand of the computer software industry in our city in recent years and our modeling analysis the market demand of the computer software industry in the future will decline but the market demand of the tertiary industry mainly the tourism service industry will increase In view of this reality we put forward the following Suggestions
1 Combine the computer major with the tertiary industry organically improve the flexibility and adaptability of the major make it able to cope with the decline of market demand in the computer software industry and prevent the decline of professional employment rate
2 Computer software major is a major with strong practicality Our school should strengthen the construction of practical skills increase the teaching hours of practical courses increase the proportion of practical course credits in the total credits make full use of the practical training and internship room of our school and guide students to pay attention to the training and cultivation of practical skills
3 The school should actively contact with zhuhai various professional related enterprise establishing a stable relationship of internship training better able to exercise the students＇ practical ability to master relevant skills Can also be used with the enterprise implements the union school enable students to set a clear career goal as early as possible to inspire the students＇ initiative enthusiasm and
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creativity relatively stable jobs for our graduates improve the employment rate in our school
§6 Error analysis and sensitivity analysis
ⅠThe error analysis
1 The data will be affected by some nonsocial factors and some humanistic factors and some individual data that are far from the model may appear causing errors
2 Statistical data are affected by graduation season holidays New Year and other factors resulting in a sudden decrease or increase in the number of people taking office
ⅡModel rationality test and analysis
Let＇s say the ratio of mean to variance is is the mean variance of the sequence residuals and is the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the mean variance ratio the better the accuracy of the prediction model
Through the formula（n123m1）for smoothness test When n>3p<05 then meets the smoothness condition
Through the formula（n23m）o test the exponential lawWhen n>3theconforms to the exponential law
Eg Technical work
①The values of P (n) are shown in the table below
09792
03737
02375
01703
11746
04501
01233
01307
00753
00700
00792
00713
00785
00543
00437
00063
02112
00790
00261
00406
00280
00119
00725
00403
00257
00238
00169
00132
00551
01395
00278
00447
00410
00293
00326
0
According to the smoothness judgment rule when n>3P (n) exists as the data in the table is basically less than 05
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（Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
②The values of q (n) are shown in the table below
14938
19988
23134
26356
16700
15998
10180
11358
13408
13551
11313
11775
10093
13658
16289
109749
16725
12689
20725
13111
18466
42789
12992
11867
18110
19267
26809
33992
11856
16920
13688
11629
11160
12002
10598
1
So the exponential rule says when n>3q（n）The data in the table are basically within the interval [115]（Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
③ByAinv(B＇*B)*B＇*YN＇ availableA00106therefore this model can be used for medium and longterm speculation or prediction
That is the established model accords with the rationality test
§7 Evaluation and generalization of the model
ⅠEvaluation of model
1 Advantages
（1）In line with the actual urban talent demand model it is able to predict and analyze for a certain period of time
（2）The model construction is simple and easy to understand
（3）The visualization effect is good and the data can be observed and predicted more intuitively
2 Disadvantages
（1）Models are rigid and difficult to add other influencing data
（2）The model data processing is not detailed enough to predict the data trend in more detailed time so it can only be predicted and analyzed in a large time dimension
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Reference
[1]Li Yanan Research on countermeasures of Tianjin professional and technical talents based on talent demand forecast Tianjin university2015124
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Team Number 85809
Problem Chosen B
2018 APMCM summary sheet
Talent and urban development
Abstract
Talents are the motive force of urban innovation and development This article disposes and analyzes the data of job demand in A city employment market developing mathematical model through the analysis of known data to solve practical problems
The prominent feature of this paper is to establish the Grey Model to modeling analyze the known data according to the randomness of the dynamic change of the job demand data of A city＇s employment market the incompleteness and uncertainty of the index data and relying on the Grey Model to realize the prediction of the variation trend of future development so as to achieve the aim which expect to solve the practical premedication problem simulate and analyze the actual situation of A city then put forward feasible suggestions for urban development and talent strategy
Another outstanding feature is that to make a deep analysis of the talent demand and talent flow in A city then provide the improvement the urban development strategy by expanding and applying the Grey Model combining the influence of the actual economic development the demand for science and technology development the national employment policy and the like on the demand for talents in the A city employment market
According to the data given by Question 1 we classify and analyze the data from three aspects work demand job expectancy and educational background requirement We build a Grey Model by MATLAB by using the Grey Model we analyze the data of fouryear talent demand of A city so as to get the forecasting model of talent demand of A city which can help to grasp the law of talent demand in A City Employment Market
In order to meet the needs of Question 2 we forecast and analyze the potential talent demand in A city in the next three years by using the Grey Model which built in Question 1 This paper combining the prediction model with the influence of the economic development situation the demand for science and technology development the national employment policy and other factors on the talent demand of A City Employment Market and then makes a deep analysis brings it into the model and analyzes the changing trend of the talent demand data that affected by various social levels as well
Focusing on the problem in question 3 we infer the urban characteristics of A city by predicting the trend of talent demand in A city based on Grey Model according to the conclusion of question two to make a comparative analysis with the actual data of some cities in China then infer the administrative categories possible geographical region economic status and hightech
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industry development finally analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the development structure of A city as a whole
In response to the new career preferences of college students that mentioned in question 4 such as taking civil service examinations starting their own enterprises working in different places studying abroad and the like we assume the trend and number of this type of college students in city A according to the city model from question 3 after putting the data trends into the Grey Model which mentioned in question 1 we can get the prediction model of college students on these items based on these above we can get the the quantitative prediction data by analyzing this phenomenon After that we can find the trend of College Students＇ new career preferences and the types and quantities for talent demand in the city＇s development planning Focus on the structure of development of this city as well as implementing the new development concept of the city in the era of informationize and intelligentialize putting forward the corresponding strategies of retaining and introducing talents in order to further plan the development economic construction scientific and technological innovation of A city
According to the following question 5 and relevant conclusions drawn from the above four questions we can get a specific talent demand prediction model of A city According to the theoretical data which derived from the prediction model we adjust the training plan of computer software professionals and accordingly the corresponding adjustment measures will be put forward in the aspects of cultivation and personalization of College students in the course construction applyoriented talents as well On the premise of guaranteeing the stability of universities and majors’ framework the training of school talents is more in line with the talents demand in A city and the needs of urban development planning
Key words Grey Model talent demand tendency urban development planning applicationoriented talent training
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Contents
Talent and urban development 1
§1 Restatement of the question 1
ⅠIntroduction 1
ⅡRelevant data 1
ⅢSpecific questions 1
§2 question analysis 2
ⅠAnalysis of specific questions and countermeasures 2
ⅡGeneral analysis of the question and the way to solve it 3
§3 Assumptions of the model 3
§4 Explanation of nouns and symbols 4
ⅠNoun explanation 4
ⅡSymbols 4
§5 Establishment and solution of the model 5
ⅠAnalysis and solution of question one 5
ⅡAnalysis and solution of question 2 13
ⅢAnalysis and solution of question 3 18
ⅣAnalysis and solution of question 418
ⅤAnalysis and solution of question 5 20
§6 Error analysis and sensitivity analysis 22
ⅠThe error analysis 22
ⅡModel rationality test and analysis 22
§7 Evaluation and generalization of the model 23
ⅠEvaluation of model 23
Reference 24
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§1 Restatement of the question
ⅠIntroduction
1Background
In the past few years inviting wisdom and attracting talents has been one of the highlights of many cities Beijing Shanghai wuhan chengdu xi ＇an and shenzhen are actually competing for talent with attractive policies Talent is the driving force for urban innovation and development because they have the ability to learn better skills make better products and master better management methods in a shorter time Talents are the main driving force of urban innovation communication because innovation communication is realized through the promotion of new technologies and technologies by highquality talents In today＇s cities in addition to the local talent market talent is also recruited through the Internet campus job fairs and open recruitment activities
2Significance of research
Talents are the core elements of regional development and outstanding talents are the basis for realizing regional development goals and the driving force for regional development In order to develop and grow a region should first attach importance to gathering innovative talents actively explore new measures paths and methods of talent construction constantly strengthen talent construction and provide strong human resources guarantee for regional development
ⅡRelevant data
Attached is the job demand data of one of the largest municipal job markets in A city (named A city＇s job market)
ⅢSpecific questions
Question 1 according to the attached data according to the job demand desired occupation and required education background the talent demand of A city＇s employment market is modeled and analyzed
Question 2 according to the talent demand of A City＇s employment market and the employment status of Chinese students the actual talent demand model data of A City can be established according to the additional data and other necessary methods and the potential talent demand of acity in the next three years can be predicted and analyzed
Question 3 try to use the data and conclusions in question 2 to infer the administrative category possible geographical region economic status and hightech industry development of acity
Question4 in recent years college students have some new career preferences such as taking the exam for village officials taking the exam for civil servants starting their own businesses working in other places and studying abroad These preferences help diversify job opportunities for college graduates This paper attempts to model and quantify this phenomenon
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to provide strategies for acity＇s urban development and talent introduction
Question 5 please write to the school authorities to find out your Suggestions and opinions on the professional talent training plan you are familiar with including curriculum construction applicationoriented talent training individualization of college students and corresponding quality measures to ensure the university and professional framework according to the current market demand for talents
§2 question analysis
ⅠAnalysis of specific questions and countermeasures
1Analysis and countermeasures of question 1
In view of the question of A given data we work in accordance with the requirements expectations of the occupation and education background of the three aspects of required for data classification and analysis of corresponding data model is established by MATLAB according to the dynamic change of randomness index data of incomplete uncertainty so the use of gray theory model to analyze it hope through the grey system analysis of A city four years of talent demand data analysis get the city talent demand forecasting model through the prediction model master A city the job market demand
2Analysis and countermeasures of question 2
In order to solve the question of question 2 we apply the data model of question 1 In question one we have set up A City the job market demand forecasting model of grey system by the prediction model as well as our country economy development situation in recent years the development of science and technology national employment policy factors such as the talent demand for A City the job market the influence of the comprehensive analysis to the model and analyzes the influence of various social levels change to demand data analysis to predict the future three years A potential demand of the City
3Analysis and countermeasures of question 3
For three of the proposed questions can according to the data in question 2 and conclusion is obtained by the model to predict the possible existence of urban characteristics of A city and some cities in our country＇s actual data this paper compares and analyzes the categories on the part of A city and possible geographical area economic status and hightech industry development to make inferences
4Analysis and countermeasures of question 4
The following are proposed in question 4 College students A new career preferences such as taking the village official test take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to study these students after graduation to is not in the scope of urban demand we will get the city according to the question of three models assume that such A city college students towards and quantity and will move towards its data and trend into A gray theory model are college students on these items to forecast model on the basis of A quantitative prediction of this phenomenon after get the data according to the data of college students＇ preference towards A new career trends As well as the
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type and quantity of talent demand needed by the city in the development planning the corresponding talent introduction strategy is put forward
5Analysis and countermeasures of question 5
By five proposed questions according to the related conclusion from the above four issues we can get A more specific city A talented person and the prediction model of the college students A new career preferences according to the theoretical data obtained from the model and the actual social situation that economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the effects on the actual data we can be targeted for the school＇s professional talent training plan in adjustment in the course construction applied talents training college students＇ individualized aspects put forward the corresponding adjustment measures On the premise of ensuring that the university and professional framework do not change the talent training of the university is more in line with the talent demand and urban development planning needs of city A
ⅡGeneral analysis of the question and the way to solve it
According to the question setting of this topic and the relevant data provided by it the group mainly applies the gray theory model to analyze it In terms of the processing of this topic it is mainly divided into the following steps first relevant material data is sorted out and analyzed and the gray theory model is substituted for the analysis to establish the basic model Secondly by extending the application of the model and analyzing the real social factors the prediction value based on the grey theory model is obtained Thirdly through the analysis and arrangement of the relevant data of the last four years and the prediction of the data of the next three years the real city model is compared to infer the relevant attributes of A city Fourth by the new vocational college students prefer this new variable substitution and sorting existing gray theory model and add new variables and parameters the new professional preferences to improve the original model the influence of improving the gray theory model and on the basis of the demand for talents and the introduction of strategy to get the corresponding solution Fifth from the perspective of university how to utilize the existing relevant prediction models talent demand is A quantitative estimation of A city and targeted to the school personnel training strategy to implement the corresponding improvement to adapt to the urban demand and accordingly to meet the needs of the employment of college students in order to improve the school personnel training strategy feasibility
§3 Assumptions of the model
1 Suppose the background of the topic in question 2 is set as the economic development situation the demand for scientific and technological development and the national employment policy of China
2 In this paper the vertical axis of all charts represents the number of people and the horizontal axis represents the year and month from 1 to 36 respectively from September 2015 to August 2012
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§4 Explanation of nouns and symbols
ⅠNoun explanation
1Grey model
If a system has the fuzziness of hierarchical and structural relations the randomness of dynamic changes the incompleteness or uncertainty of index data then these characteristics are called gray A system with a gray character is called a gray system The prediction model established for the grey system is called the grey model or GM model for short which reveals the process of continuous development and change of things inside the system That is through a small amount of incomplete information the grey differential prediction model is established to describe the development law of things in a fuzzy way for a long time (a branch of forecasting science with relatively perfect theories and methods in the field of fuzzy prediction)
2Mean variance ratio test
Let＇s say the ratio of mean to variance is Among them is the mean variance of the sequence residualsIs the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the size of mean variance ratio the better the accuracy of the prediction model
3Smoothness test
Through the formula of （n123m1）conduct smoothness testwhile n>3p<05 satisfies the smoothness condition
4Exponential law test
Through the formula of （n23m）Perform exponential rule testswhile n>3is exponential
ⅡSymbols
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serial number
symbol
Symbols
1
β
Mean variance ratio
2
S1
Mean variance of the original sequence
3
S2
Mean variance of sequence residuals
4
p（n）
Smoothness test parameters
5
q（n）
Exponential law tests parameters
6
X
A sequence of known data
§5 Establishment and solution of the model
ⅠAnalysis and solution of question one
1Analysis of the question
For A given data the analysis judgment concluded that we need to use statistics to complete A known about the job requirements and expectations of the occupation and education background required for these three aspects of data model enables it to achieve realistic data so we build corresponding data model by MATLAB the dynamic changes of randomness according to the data of incomplete uncertainty index data so the use of gray theory model to analyze it expect the city talent demand forecasting is obtained by grey system analysis model master A city the job market demand
2 The solution of the problem
21 Model preparation
（1）Data preprocessing：
First numerical pretreatment due to the materials given in the data for each position according to the statistics in the talent supply and demand according to the classification of degree required talents therefore for the convenience of longitudinal data analysis based on time axis the original data to carry on the corresponding processing for each post from 20159 20188 to the timeline for the benchmark data table statistics data statistics there are the actual supply according to the classification of degree required talents demand the total demand three aspects of data respectively corresponding to the topic of work requirements the required education background job expectations After preprocessing the data the grey theoretical model was selected for analysis based on the data characteristics and our questionsolving ideas and the grey theoretical model was established by MATLAB according to the position
（2）Data analysis：
According to the data subject material and the data using MATLAB to the grey theory model according to the job requirements the required education background job expectations three aspects to analyze the data and will be subject to jobs according to each position in the timeline of the order of the overall data analysis nested gray theory model the theory of grey mathematical model is set
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up for each position according to the variance ratio test the smoothness inspection exponential rule the rationality of the data from model test
22 Modeling
（1） According to the material data the grey theory model is established
（2）According to variance ratio test smoothness test and exponential law test the rationality of the obtained data model was tested
Among them：
Let＇s say the mean variance ratio is Among themis the mean variance of the sequence residualsis the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the mean variance ratioisthe better the accuracy of the prediction model
Through the formula（n123m1）to test the smoothnesswhile n>3p<05 satisfies the smoothness condition
Through the formula（n23m）perform exponential rule testwhile n>3Exponential law
Finally we have a grey theoretical model with good fit is obtained
For reasons of length the visual processing of the model established by arbitrarily selecting several occupations is as follows：
mark
（The red line——The actual value）
（The blue line——The predictive value）
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According to the variance ratio test smoothness test and exponential rule test mentioned above the model data reflected in the above chart can be sorted out to obtain
（For reasons of length only examples are given Other posts and positions are handled in the same way）
Eg Technical work
①P（n）as the following table
09792
03737
02375
01703
11746
04501
01233
01307
00753
00700
00792
00713
00785
00543
00437
00063
02112
00790
00261
00406
00280
00119
00725
00403
00257
00238
00169
00132
00551
01395
00278
00447
00410
00293
00326
0
According to the smoothness rulewhile n>3P（n） data in the table are basically less than 05（exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
②q（n）as the following table
14938
19988
23134
26356
16700
15998
10180
11358
13408
13551
11313
11775
10093
13658
16289
109749
16725
12689
20725
13111
18466
42789
12992
11867
18110
19267
26809
33992
11856
16920
13688
11629
11160
12002
10598
1
Rule by exponential rulewhiel n>3q（n） data in the table are basically within the interval [115]（exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
③By A inv (b ＇* B) * B * YN＇ can get A 00106 so the model can be used for speculation or for the medium and long term forecast
In other words the obtained model is X(k+1)131759674exp(0010601k)130799674
That is the Technical work grey theoretical model
According to the solution results of this post grey theory model the general solution of the model can be obtained as
close allclear allclc
yxlsread(＇D＼1＼zhiye＼Technical workxlsx＇)
wGM1_1(y(13)＇)
i1
j1
k38
aw(1)
bw(2)
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cw(3)
y2[]
Y3[]
XY[]
while(i
ii+1
end
while(j
jj+1
end
x1136
dY3
ey(13)
plot(xd＇＇xe＇*＇)
axis([1360700])
xlabel(＇Month＇)
ylabel(＇Number＇)
title(＇Technical work＇)
function wGM1_1(X0)
[mn]size(X0)
X1cumsum(X0)
X2[]
for i1n1
X2(i)X1(i)+X1(i+1)
end
B05*X2
tones(n11)
B[Bt]
YNX0(2end)
P_tYNX1(1(length(X0)1))
Ainv(B＇*B)*B＇*YN＇
aA(1)
uA(2)
cua
bX0(1)c
X[num2str(b)＇exp＇＇(＇num2str(a)＇k＇＇)＇num2str(c)]
strcat(＇X(k+1)＇X)
for t1length(X0)
k(1t)t1
end
k
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Y_k_1b*exp(a*k)+c
for j1length(k)1
Y(1j)Y_k_1(j+1)Y_k_1(j)
end
XY[Y_k_1(1)Y]
w[abc]
CAabs(XYX0)
ThetaCA
XD_Theta CA X0
AVmean(CA)
R_k(min(Theta)+05*max(Theta))(Theta+05*max(Theta))
Rsum(R_k)length(R_k)
Temp0(CAAV)^2
Temp1sum(Temp0)length(CA)
S2sqrt(Temp1)
AV_0mean(X0)
Temp_0(X0AV_0)^2
Temp_1sum(Temp_0)length(CA)
S1sqrt(Temp_1)
TempCS2S1*100
Cstrcat(num2str(TempC)＇＇)
SS0675*S1
Deltaabs(CAAV)
TempNfind(Delta
N2length(CA)
TempPN1N2*100
Pstrcat(num2str(TempP)＇＇)
ⅡAnalysis and solution of question 2
1Analysis of the question
With two proposed questions this question needs to be considered in the question solving our country economy development situation in recent years the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the talent demand for A City the job market then these factors into the question of A comprehensive analysis of grey theory model analysis the influence of various social levels data changes to the talent demand forecast analysis to three years A potential demand of the City
2The solution of the question
Check according to the data and then analyzed data processing we can get there may be in the next three years our country＇s economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the influence of the demand for talent the question A of the proceeds of the gray theory model we can in three A City of potential demand for roughly predict visualization processing by MATLAB to predict the
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results are as follows (due to space only for A few more representative to predict the position and through correlation analysis of potential demand for all kinds of jobs)
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（Due to space constraints some career charts are omitted）
According to A city have professional type can be roughly classified as information services finance health market law media types such as the project by the above analysis of the grey theory model city A talent demand trends in the next three years and reference for our country＇s economic development situation the development of science and technology demand employment policies of the state and so on comprehensive impact analysis is A city in the next three years city talent demand in the field of engineering technology etc on the basis of the model prediction is on the rise and flatten out the cultural production The information field shows a downward trend In the case of rapid growth the number of employees in the service industry may tend to be saturated and the number of talents in demand may tend to be stable or the growth rate may decrease On the basis of the rapid decline in the overall forecast of health care the decrease in the demand rate may be slowed down in the next three years According to China＇s existing employment policies there may be a certain degree of rebound In terms of law it is less affected by other factors Therefore according to the prediction model it
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can be judged that its rise or fall is very small and basically in a relatively stable state
ⅢAnalysis and solution of question 3
1Analysis of the question
Question 3 is in view of the city administrative categories possible geographic areas economic development of hightech industry status and related theories we can according to the question of grey theory model the demand for the employment of the city divided into types of general trends and the percentage of model prediction through professional requirement type percentage and its change trend can be broadly possible geographical area of A city economic status and development of hightech industries in speculation
2The solution of the question
Data obtained by two gray theory model we professional requirement type percentage of A city and its change trend based on the gray theory model and forecasting got the city vocational percentage requirement types and the change tendency from these data and other cities in our country related data (online access to draw) analogy after finishing can be concluded that A city can be A tertiary industry such as tourism services for the urban development cities with preference for domestic tourists tourist attractions the urban population is relatively small the information industry development is slow in the field of secondtier cities
ⅣAnalysis and solution of question 4
1Analysis of the question
New college students＇ career preferences such as taking the village official test take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to study solve the question should be based on data reflects the trend of college students＇ preference towards a new career as well as the city in development planning need the type and amount of talent demand targeted put forward the corresponding strategy of talent introduction
2The solution of the question
Based on the search for the related information to take part in the civil service exam to start my own business work in the long distance and overseas to learn the three direction of college students to the establishment of the grey theory model using similar methods to question 1 modeling and quantization it is concluded that the predictive results of the three directions for the future development trend (see chart)
Civil service examination：
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Work in a different place：
Overseas：
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The prediction data obtained by the grey theory model and the graphs obtained by visual processing combined with the conclusions obtained by the second and third questions can provide strategies for the development and talent introduction of city A as follows：
（1） According to the city tourism service industry as A pillar industry Suggestions on this basis the accumulation of the economy the development of hightech accelerate the construction of information the intelligence information industries as well as the field of Internet of things combined with the urban development of pillar industries supplement each other for better and faster to make urban areas such as economy science and technology get allround development
（2） Brain drain present situation for A city should be in employment policy welfare and other related social conditions on the measures to attract college students after graduation stay in the development of the local employment policy regulations relevant enterprises shall in the post and position on A certain degree of innovation the college students＇ practical skills and the way of the development of the enterprise create more jobs higher level of industry development planning
ⅤAnalysis and solution of question 5
1Analysis of the question
By five proposed questions according to the related conclusion from the above four issues we have to get A more specific city A talented person and the prediction model of the college students A new career preferences according to the theoretical data obtained from the model and the actual social situation that economic development situation the development of science and technology demand the national employment policy factors such as the effects on the actual data we can be targeted for the school＇s professional talent training plan in adjustment in the course construction applied talents training college students＇ individualized aspects put forward the corresponding adjustment measures On the premise of ensuring that the framework of university and major does not change
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the talent cultivation of university is more in line with the talent demand and urban development planning needs of city a in the process of solving the question we will take computer software major as an example to solve question 5
2The solution of the question
Dear President
I learned that computer software professional is one of the key construction of undergraduate programs in our school the professional including professional quality professional knowledge and skills of study and is equipped with computer application specialty the plane design professional netease web design program design such as major in professional place its courses including mathematics foreign language such as basic computer basic course and Office program design computer networks and other professional course enable students to understand and grasp the basic theory basic knowledge and basic professional operation ability can the integrated use of curriculum theory and knowledge to solve practical questions
Our school has done a good job in setting up continuation majors Diversified continuation majors can fully stimulate students＇ interest and ability help our school to cultivate diversified talents and greatly improve the employment rate of undergraduate students
According to the statistics of the demand of the computer software industry in our city in recent years and our modeling analysis the market demand of the computer software industry in the future will decline but the market demand of the tertiary industry mainly the tourism service industry will increase In view of this reality we put forward the following Suggestions
1 Combine the computer major with the tertiary industry organically improve the flexibility and adaptability of the major make it able to cope with the decline of market demand in the computer software industry and prevent the decline of professional employment rate
2 Computer software major is a major with strong practicality Our school should strengthen the construction of practical skills increase the teaching hours of practical courses increase the proportion of practical course credits in the total credits make full use of the practical training and internship room of our school and guide students to pay attention to the training and cultivation of practical skills
3 The school should actively contact with zhuhai various professional related enterprise establishing a stable relationship of internship training better able to exercise the students＇ practical ability to master relevant skills Can also be used with the enterprise implements the union school enable students to set a clear career goal as early as possible to inspire the students＇ initiative enthusiasm and
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creativity relatively stable jobs for our graduates improve the employment rate in our school
§6 Error analysis and sensitivity analysis
ⅠThe error analysis
1 The data will be affected by some nonsocial factors and some humanistic factors and some individual data that are far from the model may appear causing errors
2 Statistical data are affected by graduation season holidays New Year and other factors resulting in a sudden decrease or increase in the number of people taking office
ⅡModel rationality test and analysis
Let＇s say the ratio of mean to variance is is the mean variance of the sequence residuals and is the mean variance of the original sequenceThe smaller the mean variance ratio the better the accuracy of the prediction model
Through the formula（n123m1）for smoothness test When n>3p<05 then meets the smoothness condition
Through the formula（n23m）o test the exponential lawWhen n>3theconforms to the exponential law
Eg Technical work
①The values of P (n) are shown in the table below
09792
03737
02375
01703
11746
04501
01233
01307
00753
00700
00792
00713
00785
00543
00437
00063
02112
00790
00261
00406
00280
00119
00725
00403
00257
00238
00169
00132
00551
01395
00278
00447
00410
00293
00326
0
According to the smoothness judgment rule when n>3P (n) exists as the data in the table is basically less than 05
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（Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）so the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
②The values of q (n) are shown in the table below
14938
19988
23134
26356
16700
15998
10180
11358
13408
13551
11313
11775
10093
13658
16289
109749
16725
12689
20725
13111
18466
42789
12992
11867
18110
19267
26809
33992
11856
16920
13688
11629
11160
12002
10598
1
So the exponential rule says when n>3q（n）The data in the table are basically within the interval [115]（Exclude very few data values with observational error and representative error）the predicted value satisfies the smoothness condition
③ByAinv(B＇*B)*B＇*YN＇ availableA00106therefore this model can be used for medium and longterm speculation or prediction
That is the established model accords with the rationality test
§7 Evaluation and generalization of the model
ⅠEvaluation of model
1 Advantages
（1）In line with the actual urban talent demand model it is able to predict and analyze for a certain period of time
（2）The model construction is simple and easy to understand
（3）The visualization effect is good and the data can be observed and predicted more intuitively
2 Disadvantages
（1）Models are rigid and difficult to add other influencing data
（2）The model data processing is not detailed enough to predict the data trend in more detailed time so it can only be predicted and analyzed in a large time dimension
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Reference
[1]Li Yanan Research on countermeasures of Tianjin professional and technical talents based on talent demand forecast Tianjin university2015124
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