- 1.
外资物流类企业在中国的
选址决策研究
演讲人:洪俊杰 博士
对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院
南开大学现代物流研究中心
Email: hongjunjie@uibe.edu.cn
对外经济贸易大学
- 2. 提纲1.简介
2.计量模型及数据来源
3.回归结果
4.结论和启示
- 3. 2001年物流成本占中国GDP 的20%左右. 物流外包业务在过去三年中拓展25%以上 (Bolton and Wei 2003). 一些城市致力于成为区域级物流中心城市. 1. 简介 自从90年代初以来, 巨大的市场潜力吸引了大批外资物流公司进驻中国 (Hong, Chin and Liu 2004).
- 4. 该研究的目的/主要贡献:
研究外商直接投资在一个转轨经济中的选址行为 了解外资物流企业的选址决定因素 探讨公司特质对其选址的影响
- 5. 提纲1.简介
2.计量模型及数据来源
3.回归结果
4.结论和启示
- 6. 计量模型:
假定公司i在城市j的利润方程为: 如果随即变量独立地、等同地服从 Weibull 分布, 公司i选择城市j的概率为:
- 7. 数据来源:
(1)公司水平数据:
全国第二次基本单位普查,2001
(2)城市水平数据:
中国城市统计年鉴,1993-2002
中国交通统计年鉴,1993-2002
中国统计年鉴,1993-2002
中国城市年鉴,1993-2002
- 8. Province
CityNumber
ProvinceCity
Number
BeijingBeijing
77
GuangdongGuangzhou
135
TianjinTianjin220
Shenzhen
168
LiaoningShenyang
11
Zhuhai
29
Dalian
58
Shantou
5
Yingkou
9
Foshan
12
Shandong
Jinan
14
Jiangmen
7
Qingdao
61
Zhanjiang
5
Yantai
7
Heyuan6
Rizhao
5
Qingyuan5
Shanghai
Shanghai
637
Dongguan14
Jiangsu
Nanjing
40
Zhongshan
6
Wuxi
6
Shaoguan
13
Suzhou
44
Chaozhou
7
Nantong
14
HainanHaikou18
Zhenjiang
8
Hubei
Wuhan
12
Lianyungan5
ChongqingChongqing
12
Zhejiang
Ningbo
9
Sichuan
Chengdu
7
Hanzhou
6
Yunnan
Kunming
6
AnhuiHefei
5
Xinjiang
Wulumuqi
5
FujianFuzhou
20
Xiamen
47
表 1. 外资物流类企业在1992至2001年间的分布
- 9. 表 2.被解释变量的定义和描述Variables
Symbol
Definition
Mean
Mini.
Maxi
Transport factors
BERTHDUM
1 for seaport; 0 for others
0.50
0.00
1.00
LROADEN
NL of urban roadway density
2.38
-2.61
5.57
LROADEN1
NL of provincial road density
3.45
0.30
4.36
LRAIDEN1
NL of provincial railway density
-0.25
-2.52
1.92
Market size
LINDOUT1
NL of provincial industrial output
8.55
4.64
9.55
LPRIVATE1
NL of provincial percentage of private employment
0.98
-1.83
3.38
Labor consideration
LTECHPOP
NL of urban percentage of technical workers
-3.80
-6.50
0.00
Agglomeration economies
LTERT
NL of employment percentage of the tertiary industry
3.60
2.56
4.29
LFDI
NL of number of FDI
5.75
1.79
8.66
Government’s policy
FTA
1 for free trade zone; 0 for others
0.23
0.00
1.00
CAPITAL
1 for Beijing or the capital of a province; 0 for others
0.53
0.00
1.00
- 10. 提纲1.简介
2.以前的研究
3.计量模型及数据来源
4.回归结果
5.结论和启示
- 11. Variables
Parameter
t value
BERTHDUM: Seaport (dummy variable)
0.55***
5.05
LROADEN: road density in the city
0.30***
6.83
LROADEN1: road density in the province
0.14
1.18
LRAIDEN1: railway density in the province
0.48***
9.74
LINDOUT1: provincial industrial output
0.41***
6.42
LPRIVATE1: private employment percentage
0.25***
4.12
LTECHPOP: technical workers percentage
0.22***
4.17
LTERT: employment percentage of the tertiary industry
0.28*
1.65
LFDI: number of foreign direct investments
0.43***
9.63
FTA: free trade zones (dummy variable)
0.66***
5.07
CAPITAL: capital cities (dummy variable)
0.35***
3.01
Observations
1775
Log-likelihood
-4575
Restricted Log-likelihood
-6548
2 adjusted a
0.301
模型回归结果 表 3
- 12. 外资企业特质对选址的影响:外资公司的选址决策因素可能会随着时间的推移而改变 (Zhou et al. 2002)FDI 选址因素可能会随着其来源地区的不同而改变 (He 2003)独立公司(或总部)和分公司的选址考虑因素可能会不同 (Ihlanfeldt and Raper 1990; Ono 2003)
- 13.
Branch
Independent BERTHDUM: Seaport (dummy variable)
0.71***0.41***LROADEN: road density in the city
0.44***
0.24***LROADEN1: road density in the province
-0.220.40***LRAIDEN1: railway density in the province
0.38***0.51***LINDOUT1: provincial industrial output
0.38***0.40***LPRIVATE1: private employment percentage
0.19*0.26***LTECHPOP: technical workers percentage
0.030.29***LTERT: employment percentage of the tertiary industry
-0.270.43**LFDI: number of foreign direct investments
0.67***0.33***FTA: free trade zones (dummy variable)
-0.291.24***CAPITAL: capital cities (dummy variable)
1.38***-0.20Observations
545
1230
Log-likelihood
-1446
-3081
Restricted Log-likelihood
-2010
-4537
2 adjusted a
0.280
0.321
表 四. 外资物流企业选址: 组织结构的影响
- 14.
Non-HMT HMTBERTHDUM: Seaport (dummy variable)
0.69***0.46***LROADEN: road density in the city
0.29***0.35***LROADEN1: road density in the province
-0.140.38**LRAIDEN1: railway density in the province
0.83***0.24***LINDOUT1: provincial industrial output
0.51***0.40***LPRIVATE1: private employment percentage
0.15*0.27***LTECHPOP: technical workers percentage
0.23***0.18***LFDI: number of foreign direct investments
0.44***0.40***FTA: free trade zones (dummy variable)
0.41**0.99***CAPITAL: capital cities (dummy variable)
0.59***0.07Observations
863
912
Log-likelihood
-2127
-2389
Restricted Log-likelihood
-3184
-3364
2 adjusted a
0.332
0.290
表 五. 外资物流企业选址: 来源地区的影响
- 15.
pre-1997
after 1997
BERTHDUM: Seaport (dummy variable)
0.38**0.97***LROADEN: road density in the city
0.020.34***LROADEN1: road density in the province
-0.141.06***LRAIDEN1: railway density in the province
0.54***-
LINDOUT1: provincial industrial output
0.52**0.08**LPRIVATE1: private employment percentage
-0.000.51***LTECHPOP: technical workers percentage
0.30***0.08LFDI: number of foreign direct investments
0.55***0.50***FTA: free trade zones (dummy variable)
1.32***-0.38**CAPITAL: capital cities (dummy variable)
-0.271.27***Observations
765
1010
Log-likelihood
-2067
-2499
Restricted Log-likelihood
-2822
-3726
2 adjusted b
0.268
0.329
表 六. 外资物流企业选址: 时间因素的影响
- 16. 提纲1.简介
2.以前的研究
3.计量模型及数据来源
4.回归结果
5.结论和启示
- 17. 5. 结论和启示结论:
(1) 外资物流类企业选址决策因素:
市场,劳动力,政府政策,基础设施等
(2) 公司特质对外资选址的影响:
来源地区,组织结构,时间等
总结:外资选址是地址因素,公司本身特点以及时间因素综合影响的结果.
- 18. 对制定政策的启示:
(1) 交通网络的影响(2) ‘软’因素的影响(3) 公司本身特点的影响 (4) 时间因素的影响
- 19. 谢 谢!